Ivan Sichen, an expert of the “Borysfen Intel” Centre, for Gazeta.ua

Russia has intensified offensive and defensive actions in the most important parts of the front line. It is trying to deter the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and restore its initiative in the war. The occupiers are using the tactics of encircling the cities of Avdiivka and Marinka in order to force their garrisons to surrender. This was stated in an interview with Gazeta.ua by military expert Ivan Sichen.

— Ukrainian military have repelled dozens of Russian attacks on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, 64 combat clashes took place at the front within a day. Why did the occupiers are going on offensive right now? Do they want to advance while the weather is dry?

— Recently, after replenishing and regrouping its troops on Ukrainian territory, Russia has intensified offensive and defensive actions in the most important sectors of the front line. Due to this, it is trying to achieve the main goals of its offensive, which began in January 2023, to deter the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and to restore its initiative in the war. As part of the implementation of these plans, the main directions of concentration of Russia’s efforts remain several at once.

Kupiansk-Lyman — in this direction, Russia intends to advance to the left bank of the River Oskol and gain a foothold on it, as well as complete the process of occupation of Luhansk region. The achievement of these goals would allow Moscow to occupy the areas for further development of the offensive on Kupiansk as an important transport hub, and Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as Ukraine’s key military centers in the Donbas.

Besides, it was in this region that one of the main counteroffensive operations of the Defense Forces of Ukraine was carried out last year, during which most of Kharkiv region was liberated and a direct threat to the so-called DPR and LPR was created. Therefore, Moscow is trying to prevent a recurrence of such a situation and make it impossible to launch a counteroffensive on Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.

Ivan Sichen: Avdiivka and Marinka are actually suburbs of Donetsk, and thus are located directly on the front line. It is this situation that determines the importance of this direction for Russia, which is making efforts to move away the war zone.
Author: Ukrinform

— What forces do the Russians have?

—Taking into account the above-mentioned circumstances, it is in this direction that the most powerful grouping of the Russian forces with a total number of 120–130 thousand troops is deployed. However, it is the longest front, and therefore Russia cannot achieve a decisive advantage there, sufficient for the operational breakthrough. This is evidenced by the extremely limited successes of the Russian troops with minor advances only in the so-called gray zone. Moreover, in many cases, our forces knock out Russian units from the places they had captured. Such battles with varying successes of the parties have been going on for a long time in the areas of the Serebriansk forest and the villages of Torske, Synkivka, Ivanivka and Makiivka

It should also be noted that Russia’s capabilities to strengthen its forces in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction are rather low due to the lack of sufficient reserves. Moreover, the Russian military command is forced to redeploy part of its troops to counter the Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia region. In particular, a new, but poorly trained and understaffed 26^th Army of the Russian Armed Forces was recently sent to Kupiansk. At the same time, the Russians threw units of the 41^st Army, which have combat experience, to the south of Ukraine. Based on the above-mentioned circumstances, at least in the near future, Russia will not have any real achievements in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction.

— Russian invaders do not stop offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk region. The occupiers want to surround the city from the south and north. This was stated by Commander of the 59^th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Vadym Sukharevskyi. Why do Russians need Avdiivka so much? Why did they start their offensive there?

— Avdiivka and Marinka are actually suburbs of Donetsk, and thus are located directly on the front line. It is this situation that determines the importance of this direction for Russia, which is making efforts to move the war zone away from the administrative center of the so-called DPR. Besides, it would enable the Russian Armed Forces to reach the western border of Donetsk region. At the same time, a significant obstacle for the Russian troops is the firmness of Ukraine’s defense, which is based on a strong system of fortified areas that have been built and improved since 2014. It is almost impossible to break through them without critical losses for Russian troops. Therefore, they use the tactics of encircling Avdiivka and Marinka in order to force their garrisons to capitulate.

Since the beginning of this year, the greatest successes of the Russian Armed Forces have been achieved in the area of Avdiivka, which is really semi-encircled. Building on this, Russian troops are trying to complete the job and finally surround the city, intensifying attacks to the north and south of it. As a result, the Russians advanced even further to the east and took under fire control the highway between Avdiivka and the logistics bases of its garrison, which significantly complicated the situation of the city.

—Avdiivka will now be turned into a sacred second Debaltseve, a second Sievierodonetsk, and a second Bakhmut, — Oleksandr Morozov writes. Do the Russians really have such plans?

—The situation is still far from complete encircling, and it is unlikely that what happened near Ilovaisk in late August – early September 2014 will happen again. At that time, the Defense Forces of Ukraine had no fortified positions at all and were suddenly attacked and then surrounded by the Russian Armed Forces, which invaded Ukrainian territory. Now there are such positions in Avdiivka, and suddenness of the Russian attack is out of the question.

— What will happen if the occupiers manage to implement these plans?

— The Defense Forces of Ukraine are successfully repulsing enemy attacks and, if necessary, can be withdrawn from Avdiivka in an organized manner, as was done in the cities of Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk and Bakhmut. Approximately the same thing is happening around Marinka. But even if the enemy manages to capture them, it will pay a price for it that will not allow it to continue the offensive in the Avdiivka-Marinka direction.

— What is happening in the Bakhmut direction?

— There, the Russians are trying to keep Bakhmut in their hands and to counter the attacks of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. If successful, Russia will be able to launch an offensive on Chasiv Yar, and from it on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, or to the west, to the border of the River Kryvyi Torets and the city of Druzhkivka. Due to this, the initial areas would be provided for further advancement into the depths of the territory of Ukraine.

As before, the fighting around Bakhmut is multidirectional. Thus, on the northern outskirts of the city, Russian troops are conducting offensive operations in the area of the settlement of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. In the south, they are countering the advance of our forces from the villages of Klishchiivka and Andriivka to the east. The tough defense of the Russian troops in this area is combined with counteroffensive actions.

At the same time, the general situation in the Bakhmut direction, in fact, remains unchanged. Our forces are slowly moving forward south of Bakhmut, have reached the railway and are keeping the Bakhmut-Horlivka highway under fire control. Russian troops managed to slightly push back the Defense Forces of Ukraine north of Bakhmut, but this did not improve their position in any way. Due to the transfer of the priority attention of the parties to other directions, the Bakhmut direction in a certain way recedes into the background. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have significant reserves there. Therefore, in the near future, there will most likely be no significant progress in one direction or another.

— What are the Russians’ global plans in the east and south? Do they have the strength to do so? What do we have in response?

— The Melitopol-Berdiansk direction is extremely important for Moscow. It is there that the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine is taking place, aimed at eliminating the land corridor from Russia to Crimea. In this regard, the Russian military command has pulled all its reserves there, including from other directions. In fact, the intensification of Russia’s actions in the above-mentioned directions is aimed at holding our forces there in order to prevent sending of reserves to the southern sector of the front.

In addition, Russia continues to improve the defense system, which it began to build in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions last autumn. Limited counterattacks are also being carried out, primarily in the area of the villages of Robotino in the Melitopol direction and Staromaiorske in the Berdiansk direction.

In general, the offensive allowed Russia to slow down our counteroffensive and even practically stop it, at least temporarily. However, the enemy does not have sufficient resources to defeat the Defense Forces of Ukraine and force us to give up the counteroffensive. And the presence of long-range missiles and UAVs makes it possible to strike at transport communications between Rostov region of the Russian Federation and the Crimean Peninsula, as well as at Russian military facilities in Crimea itself.

— What is Russia trying to achieve at the front now?

— Russia is trying to take revenge and completely seize the initiative at the front in Ukraine. To this end, offensive, counteroffensive and defensive operations are being carried out in a number of the most important areas. In some areas, the Russian troops have some successes, but they do not affect the overall situation. The exception to this is the southern direction, where Russia managed to temporarily slow down the counteroffensive of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is unable to defeat our forces and achieve its goals.

Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva

Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian